A couple of weeks ago I read an interesting commentary piece in The Times, which looked at how former players are liable to be drawn into big jobs too quickly, only to be shown the door within months when a string of poor results betrays their lack of experience.   Unsurprisingly, the article focused on Paul Ince’s less than auspicious start to top flight management with struggling Blackburn (and this written before a further three defeats on the spin).   Yet for me, it flagged more broadly the double-edged sword of being a manager in the Premier League.  After all, it’s not just the young guns who fall foul of Dickinson’s ‘Unforgiving System’ - the recent experiences of Sven Goran Erikkson, Sam Allardyce and Juande Ramos all highlight the vast rewards to be had and the often inexplicably quick descent into ignominy to be suffered. 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/columnists/matt_dickinson/article5226678.ece

Long story short, the article (link above) got me thinking about another EFP entry and I started to put some words to the page.  I didn’t get very far, for one reason or another, but a number of things have sparked this more determined attempt to get something away, with Roy Keane’s departure from Sunderland chief among them.

Roy Keane’s decision to walk away from Sunderland, although not unexpected after the barely concealed deterioration of relationships in the dressing room, is not easy to categorise.  It is ironic really – many Premier League managers would surely love to have a Chairman in the mould of Niall Quinn, who was prepared to offer Keane both funds and time.  Certainly, the pressure that seemed to encircle Keane of late did not appear to come from the Board room.  Until recently, it looked as though management had tamed some of Keane’s more reckless impulses.  Last Thursday’s events (not to mention the post mortem that followed in the next day’s back pages) suggested otherwise.  Sir Alex Ferguson’s implicit suggestion that Keane might not return to management appears astute.   Whatever the root cause of the enigmatic Irishman’s fall from grace, one thing is for sure – club management in the Premier League is a ‘very precarious industry.’

Niall Quinn - looks like a nice Chairman; is a nice Chairman

Easy for Ferguson to say (I was 2 weeks shy of my 3^rd Birthday when Ferguson took to the helm at Old Trafford)!  For Sam Allardyce, who (once upon a time) had a job for life at The Reebok, such wisdom would doubtless be harder to utter.  Fast approaching a full year without employment, Allardyce has somehow found himself on the manager’s scrap heap.  Indeed, given the brevity of his stay in the North East, it is safe to assume that this extended period of gardening leave is not of Big Sam’s own design.  Rather, his widely perceived failure to have an impact at Newcastle – a so-called ‘big club’ – has left his reputation in tatters.  Well, that and his uncompromising approach to the beautiful game.  If it’s good enough for the Trotters, the current logic goes, then it’s not good enough for the rest of us.  Sunderland may take a different view but they are unlikely to offer Allardyce quite the lucrative contract that he received up the road (thought to be worth up to $12m!). 

Whenever Allardyce does gain reemployment – and it surely will happen eventually, whether with the Mackems or not , it is far from certain that Paul Ince will still be an opposite number.  Ince sees his fate inextricably linked to that of his old team mate Roy Keane.  Interestingly, however, according to the Guv’nor this has less to do with the fact that their respective clubs (former or otherwise) are in the relegation zone than it does with a suspected plot (masterminded by whom, it is not clear) to see them both fail.  Quite how Ince came to this conclusion is anyone’s guess but certainly this response rings far truer:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/columnists/martin_samuel/article5304254.ece

I particularly enjoyed the quip about the bottom line in football – ‘there are three teams below it and each has a manager with good reason to be nervous.’  That said, and returning to the earlier article, Samuel’s view is a bit too black and white (no pun intended) in that it fails to offer any insight into why it is that Blackburn are languishing in the bottom three.  The induction to Premier League management is testing at the best of times but in Blackburn – a club who had just lost an excellent coach who had brought stability and (arguably) over achievement to the club – the task facing Ince looked daunting from day one.  And as Samuel did point out, Hull’s magnificent start to the season (and we shouldn’t forget Stoke, who also continue to far exceed expectation) hasn’t helped matters.  Nor Tottenham’s continuing renaissance!!  I apologise - Jamie O’Hara has just (literally)put Spurs 2-0 up at West Ham and what do you know, the conversation has already turned to Zola’s future.  (Incidentally, Steve Claridge – who gives Mark Lawrenson a good run for his money in the uninspiring stakes - earlier tipped Sam Allardyce for the Sunderland post). 

Lawro - his enthusiasm for the beautiful continues to bring joy to all

Zola, arguably even more so than Ince, is another newbie struggling to keep his head above water.  Is this because the diminutive Italian does not have what it takes?  Or is it due to a lack of experience?  Indeed, Zola’s managerial résumé makes for light reading, his only substantive experience (if you can call it that) coming via a two year stint spent as Pierluigi Casiraghi’s assistant with the Italian U21 side.  However, events off the pitch have not played into Zola’s favour (West Ham, more than most, are feeling the pinch of the credit crunch) and it is not incomprehensible that Zola has, in the Hammers, simply picked a rotten apple.  In all likelihood, it is a combination of all of the above and unless something gives soon Zola is unlikely to have either a merry Christmas or a happy New Year.

On a slight tangent, a few hours after I read the Dickinson article I spent a not entirely pleasant evening at the Galpharm.  A sure contender for the worst named stadium in English football (and very unbecoming for it is actually a fine example of modern architecture), the Galpharm is home to the once mighty Huddersfield Town. 

The Galpharm - better than it sounds (thank God)

Yes indeed, in the 1920s Huddersfield won the top division not once, not twice but on three back to back occasions.  On today’s evidence you would never know it.  On the evening in question, they lost 1-0 to Leyton Orient.  Yet it is perhaps the memory of better days past that has underpinned the moderately high turnover of recent managers at the club.  Lee Clark, appointed this week, is the club’s eighth permanent manager in the past decade and the third of this year.  I mention this (and those of you hot on your skysports news will note that Clark was appointed a good 36 hours after O’Hara’s rather delightful strike) because it perhaps serves as a timely reminder that young managers, particularly those who played at the highest level, do not have to cut their teeth at the top. 

In fairness, Paul Ince spent at least some time in the lower leagues.  However, given his age (he is the managing equivalent of Theo Walcott) and the incredible pressure that comes with being a Premier League manager in today’s game, I can’t help but wonder whether (almost) two full seasons was long enough.  The problem faced by Ince, Zola, Adams, Keane, etc., is that, unlike young players, there is no safety net for them when they fail to deliver the goods.  The Board won’t remove a manager from the firing line for a few games why he rebuilds his confidence.  Of course, the lure of the Premier League is massive and none more so than for those players whose distinguished careers helped define it.  It is perhaps no coincidence that ‘lesser’ players (and I say that with all due respect) such as Colin Calderwood, Jim Magilton, Simon Grayson, Mark Robins and now Lee Clark are operating, for the time being at least, outside of the Premier League.  Three of those have served one club for over two years.  It is speculative, for sure, but perhaps Ince and co would have been better served showing similar patience.

Simon Grayson - The former Villa player is now in his 4th year as Blackpool boss

Not one to deliberately ignore the other side of the coin, I cannot deny that such a view can be overly prescriptive and, worse, unwarranted.  Take Mark Hughes and Gareth Southgate.  Southgate especially has thrown himself in at the deep end but by and large he is doing ok.  Hughes’ time at Wales was doubtless of great value but the Welshman’s assimilation into club management at the highest level was nonetheless impressive.  And at the other end of the spectrum, let us not forget Big Sam - left out in the cold, having more than held his own in the Premier League for six seasons with Bolton after orchestrating the club’s passage to the top flight.  The Sunderland job may yet be his but a week is a long time in football (have I said this before … ) and there is a sense that if he was perceived to be the right man for the job that it would be his already.  I wonder what went through his mind when he heard that Juande Ramos had been appointed Real Madrid’s new manager …

Allardyce - have we seen the last of Big Sam?

In my first contribution to this site, a fortnight ago now, I used Tottenham Hotspur’s John Bostock as a portal to explore some of the issues surrounding young English players in today’s game.  And it would be fair to say that the overall tone of the piece was negative.  Well, one week (or two … ) is a long time in football …

John Bostock becomes youngest ever player for Spurs

Within 48 hours of The Youth Today being posted, Bostock made a small piece of history, becoming the youngest ever player to represent the club at first team level as he came on for the latter stages of the 4-0 UEFA Cup win over Dinamo Zagreb. He’s unlikely to become a first team regular anytime soon (he didn’t make the bench in this week’s Carling Cup tie against Liverpool) but it was nevertheless a welcome surprise and an exciting development. And, one can but hope, a sign of things to come. Certainly that was the message coming from the irrepressible Harry Redknapp. Speaking on the eve of the fixture, Redknapp’s enthusiasm for youth development was tangible - “I’d love to start getting some kids coming out of the youth team and into the first team. That would be the ultimate, the long-term aim.” Great news for Spurs fans.

However, it wasn’t events at the Lane that prompted me to pick up where I left off. Instead, it was a thought provoking blog that focused on the other lot from North London.

The blog I am referring to was written by the BBC’s chief football writer, Phil McNulty, and focused on the homegrown talent that this week propelled Arsenal to yet another League Cup quarter final (their 6^thin as many years). Those who read my last blog (and presumably there weren’t many Gooners among you) will recall that I was quick to dismiss Arsenal’s youngsters as being sickeningly gifted but largely foreign and/or bought. Well, it turns out I was wrong. Click below to find out why:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/philmcnulty/2008/11/could_wenger_shape_new_england.html

I stand corrected.

My final thought on how quickly things can change in football brings me back (only briefly, I promise) to White Hart Lane.  Was it really just three weeks ago that Spurs were impressively self-imploding at the Britannia Stadium, marooned to the foot of the table with a disastrous 2 points from 8 games and having managed to score just 5 league goals?  Unbelievable.  I’m still in a state of shock and I suspect I’m not the only one – just ask Rafa Benitez.  A victory at Craven Cottage this weekend and Spurs could find themselves gracing the top half of the table, some 10 months ahead of schedule.  How can one explain this extraordinary turnaround?  Without doubt, Redknapp must take significant credit for the way he has galvanised a squad that, quite literally, had hit rock bottom. But to fully understand Spurs’ incredible ascendancy, one must look further afield.

Outside of the top four – who, while not on imperious form this year, look collectively as untouchable as ever – it is difficult to recollect a time when the playing field has been so level.  Now, first of all, I should put my hands up and confess that my footballing knowledge goes back no further than the inaugural season of the Premier League.  Consequently, it is entirely possible that what we are seeing currently was the norm in the good ‘ole days and I am simply none the wiser.  For me though, what is so remarkable about the current season to date is the fact that I cannot recall anything quite like it.  Not wanting to be caught short twice in as many weeks (Jay Simpson who?), I thought I’d better cover my back and do some digging (if you ever find yourself at a loose end and/or really, really bored, www.statto.com could keep you entertained for hours) and, as a result, I can share the following: 

Currently, a mere 9 points is all that separates West Brom in 20^th (11 points) from Aston Villa in 5^th (20 points).  At the same stage last season, 18 points separated 20^th from 5^th.  In 2006-07 it was 13 points, 15 in 2005-06 and, leaping a further decade back to when the top flight was trimmed to its present 20 places, 18 points (again) in 1995-96.  Also, never before in the Premier League’s short history has the basement club been in double figures after 12 games.  Nottingham Forest, for the anoraks, came the closest back in ’92, with 9 points.  In the four previous campaigns used above, the gap between 17^th and 10^th places averaged 8 points.  This season, that gap is just 2 points.

(Brian Clough - Notts Forest) 9 points boys - it's going to be a good year!

So what does it all mean?  Well, ultimately, time will tell.  It’s still relatively early days and I for one would not be overly surprised to see a slow return to ‘business as usual’ in the coming weeks and months and, come May, a far more typical, dispersed table.  But the alternative, and very feasible at this point in time, is a relegation battle like none seen in recent times.  I think it might have been Harry Redknapp (I know, I really do need to broaden my horizons) who earlier this week said that there are 14 teams fighting the drop this year.  Fourteen!!  That number might be a bit generous but there really are an unusual number of teams with legitimate cause for concern.  West Brom, Stoke, Bolton, Fulham, Blackburn, Sunderland, Fulham, Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan all look capable of getting relegated, as things stand.  I haven’t included Spurs or Man City in that list and I don’t think it’s difficult to see why.  Hull have lost three on the bounce and could find themselves looking over their shoulder sooner rather than later and I would think Pompey fans might also be a little nervy while Tony Adams settles into his new role.   Middlesbrough are possibly the least quantifiable team in the whole league – atrocious one week and decent the next.  Which leaves Everton and Villa.  Both teams’ supporters might be slightly underwhelmed by progress this season but sleepless nights are not expected.

Returning once more to the BBC website, a few minutes spent with this little diversion and I can put the above to the test.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

Not wanting to spend all night at it, I kept to a simple process of using only 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1 score lines.  On this basis, my final Premier League table looked like this:

1. Chelsea - 99
2. Man Utd - 90
3. Liverpool - 90
4. Arsenal - 79
5. Spurs - 60
6. Everton - 55
7. Man City - 54
8. Villa - 54
9. Blackburn - 43
10. Wigan - 41
11. Fulham - 40
12. Portsmouth - 38
13. Sunderland - 38
14. Bolton - 37
15. Hull - 36
16. West Ham - 36
17. Newcastle - 34
18. Middlesbrough - 34
19. Stoke - 29
20. West Brom - 29 

How on earth did I manage to relegate Middlesbrough?  I’m also a bit disappointed to have steered Spurs to a top 5 finish – I hoped I was more objective than that!  Those aberrations aside though, I would stand by broad elements of this table.  For example, I do think that the teams finishing 5^th-8^th have the quality to pull away from the rest (without getting anywhere near the top four) but perhaps not in quite such a clear cut manner.  And Stoke (apologies to the editor) and West Brom probably are the two teams most likely to find themselves adrift at the bottom.  I’d probably bump Newcastle up a place or two – maybe in a straight swap with Sunderland – but other than that I think it’s credible.

At the very least, my version of events certainly bears out the possibility of an unconventionally large relegation fight. It could be a long season for many but a mouth watering prospect for the rest of us …

In May this year Tottenham Hotspur beat off the likes of Barcelona, Chelsea and Manchester United to sign Crystal Palace’s 16 year old prodigy, John Bostock.  Outside the Championship (or, more accurately perhaps, South East London), Bostock was hardly a household name.  Indeed, for many, this has remained unchanged - unsurprising, given that Bostock has yet to feature even at reserve level for his new club, instead finding himself in the relative obscurity of the Academy.

Yet the transfer was far from insignificant for a number of reasons. 

Spurs beat off everyone to sign talented prodigy John Bostock

First of all, it drew attention to the inadequate framework currently in place to compensate clubs outside of the top flight who cannot hold on to their home grown talent.  Whilst £700,000 (a fee deemed appropriate by a football league tribunal) might sound a sizeable amount for a 16 year old sans Greek first name, for Crystal Palace it was a bitter blow. 

If we were to consider the transfer in isolation, Palace would doubtless struggle to convince a soul that such a figure had been invested in the youngster’s development.  However, as with much in life, taking things in isolation can often be outrageously misleading.  For Palace, the question of remuneration hinged not so much on the individual ability of the player in question, greatly valued though he was, but on the value of the club’s overall infrastructure for developing young footballers.  And, essentially, raised the question: why the f**k do we bother?!  Because whilst Palace do stand to potentially earn quadruple the initial sum through various clauses, right now that is of scant consolation. 

Surely a more measured approach to transfers of this nature would be to land the financial burden at the feet of the clubs that can afford it!  Why should the smaller clubs be left hungering after fees that may or may not materialize when, let’s face it, Spurs and the likes have the capacity to pay those fees outright.  The frequent false dawns of the England national team has, in recent years, brought the issue of grass roots football to the fore and, in the case of Bostock it is perhaps easy to see why.

Crystal Palace’s infamous chairman, Simon Jordan, was so outraged with the transfer that he questioned why he bothered with football, suggesting this might be the final straw in his fractious relationship with the beautiful game.  The scale of his disillusionment only highlights the significance of the Bostock transfer.  Jordan himself was quick to latch on to the wider implications of the transfer, drawing a clear line between the tribunal’s decision and England’s failure to qualify for this summer’s European Championships.

Simon Jordan - business as usual at Palace

Personally, this isn’t an argument I can whole heartedly subscribe to.  Not wanting to get drawn into the swampy tangent that is the recent shortcomings of the England team, recent failures have, in my view, more to do with the here and the now.  However, Jordan’s apocalyptic view of the national game could ring far truer in the coming decades.  Provided someone kidnaps Fabio Capello in the near future of course.

The problem is two-fold.  First, clubs such as Palace will increasingly turn their back on youth development if it becomes a fiscal imperative to do so.  Second, even if the crucial role played by ‘the Palace’ et al is recognized, and a suitable reward system put in place, to what end if the precocious kids in question are blinkered (read utterly blind-sighted) by the calling of the big boys.  Fighting the urge to defend my beloved Spurs’ reputation as a Premier League power house, let us instead turn to the second major significance of Bostock’s transfer – the lack of loyalty and, worse, given the player’s tender years, the apparent lack of good counsel.

In October last year, Bostock made his first team debut at the incredible if not unprecedented age of 15 years and 287 days.  And although he only went on to make only four further first team appearances that season, as a close ‘Palace’ friend of mine frequently laments (and Simon Jordan eulogized), he was likely to play a much increased part in the side this year.  The club wanted desperately to hold on to their prized asset and Jordan’s argument that the player’s long-term future development would be better executed at Palace did not ring hollow.  And, indeed, as flash as I’m sure Spurs training facilities are, are they likely to prove a learning curve equal to the Oblivion-esque (I heard a rumour that Alton Towers are planning to tear Oblivion down, surely not!) gradient provided by the rough and tumble of the Championship. 

The Oblivion, Alton Towers - A frightening experience

While there is undoubtedly a debate to be had about the merits of both, as a Spurs fan no less, I would rather see Bostock flourishing in Palace’s first team than decelerating in the youth vault at Tottenham.  A cursory glance at Tottenham’s recent track record of nurturing young talent reinforces this point.  But first let me finish this strand: with the club powerless to make themselves heard through Bostock’s inevitably oversized walkman headphones, who could they turn to?  Nobody, is the answer.  Least of all the player’s step-father who, last we heard, was to have his season ticket at Selhurst Park refunded …

So what of Tottenham’s youth set-up?

To my mind, only three players, one idolized, one reviled and one largely forgotten, have truly come through the youth system at Spurs in recent years: Ledley King,  Sol Campbell and Stephen Carr.  Peter Crouch was on the books for a short while before being deemed surplus to requirements, Dean Marney was sent to the lower leagues (and no, the irony of Hull’s current position has been lost on the author) after doing little wrong besides score two screamers on his debut against Everton and … I’m struggling. 

In fairness, Luke Young has built a decent career for himself but he was never more than a fringe player in his years at White Hart Lane.  So, prolific, the development coaches at Spurs haven’t been.  In Tottenham’s defence, few other Premier League clubs are pumping out babes at any enviable rate of knots, bar perhaps Everton and Middlesbrough.  Even a quick glance across to our dear neighbours doesn’t tell a more encouraging story.  Sure, Arsenal do have a youth set up to cause even the most ardent Spurs fan to salivate into their cereal but home grown it most certainly isn’t.  Which is all very well for the immediate future – few would bet against Arsenal getting back amongst the titles in the coming years – but what about the bigger picture?

Dean Marney - another let go, despite early promise at Spurs

One of two things needs to happen to protect that bigger picture.  Either the coffers of the likes of Simon Jordan need to be suitably indemnified for the riches of their precious production lines or, one of the step-father, the agent, the ex-professional or the pet freaking dog needs to sit the young lad down and say, calm down little guy, patience is a virtue.

Or, and here’s an exciting thought for us flagging but ever-hopeful Spurs fans, ‘arry will rediscover the sort of form he displayed at West Ham, that saw the likes of Lampard, Ferdinand, Carrick, Defoe and Joe Cole emerge during his tenure.   And who knows, maybe Bostock will become a household name sooner than expected …